Pollsters Predict PC Election Victory But Differ on Margin of Victory

Latest EKOS Research Poll

A recent EKOS Research poll published on April 6, 2018, revealed the following:

  • If the election was held at the time of the survey 43% of respondents would support the PCs, 29.3% would support the Liberals, 20.7% would support the NDP and 5.22% would support the Greens
  • If the election was held at the time of the survey just over 50% of the male respondents said they would vote for or were leaning towards voting for the PCs; 27% of the male respondents said they would vote for or were leaning towards voting for the Liberals; almost 16% of the male respondents said they would vote for or were leaning towards voting for the NDP
  • If the election was held at the time of the survey 35% of the female respondents said they would vote for or were leaning towards voting for the PCs, 32% said Liberal and 26% NDP
  • Some of the support for Doug Ford comes from a demographic very similar to the support for Donald Trump in the United States

Latest Forum Research Poll

A poll conducted by Forum Research and published on March 29th revealed the following:

  • The PCs enjoy the support of 36% of decided and leaning voters, the Liberals 29% and the NDP 26%
  • The PC lead over the Liberals is narrowing when compared to earlier polls
  • If the election was held at the time of the poll the PCs would win a minority government with 57 seats in the 124 seat Ontario Legislature; the Libs would form the Official Opposition with 36 seats and the NDP close behind with 31
  • A majority of those polled approved of many of the specific elements of the recent Liberal budget

Latest Mainstreet Research Poll

A Mainstreet Research poll published on April 6, 2018, showed the following results:

  • The PCs enjoy the support of 50.3% of decided and leaning voters, the Liberals 23.9% , the NDP 18.3% and the Greens at 5.2%
  • The recent Liberal government’s budget did change support for the Liberals
  • 53.1% of respondents said the budget made them less likely to vote Liberals, 20.4% said that they are now more likely to vote Liberal and 14.2% said that the budget had no effect on their considerations
  • Our Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne has a favourability rating of -46.8%, PC Leader Doug Ford -6.3% while NDP leader Andrea Horwath is the most popular leader with a rating of +8.1%